Monthly Mortgage Market Trends

October 2019

October Mortgage Trends Insight


Producing Branch Manager

Slow and steady wins the race!  

Despite the headlines and fears hovering around the economic recession, it’s the housing market that continues to be the bright spot in the midst of turmoil. Cheers for us!

Interest rates remain at 3 year lows hovering between 3.64% and 3.75% (with .5%-1% discount) supporting both buyer demand and pending home sales.  In fact, mortgage purchase applications are up 9% year over year despite the weekly variances due to changes in the interest rates.  Pending home sales are also up nationally 2.5% year over year.  
Rising demand will reaccelerate home price appreciation in the absence of more supply.  

So please tell me what I am not supposed to like about low interest rates and continued appreciation? BAM! Better cash flow on real estate holdings. Continued growth of value on my leveraged assets. By the way, did you hear CoreLogic, the gold standard for appreciation, increased their forecasted year over year national appreciation from 5.4% to 5.8%? Right now we are at 3.6% year over year looking backwards, which is exactly the historical average. Slow and steady wins the race!  

We can’t ignore the economic slowdown around us.  

Q2 final GDP landed at 2%, slower after a strong 3.1% for Q1. We also have manufacturing continuing its slowdown as it hit the lowest reading in more than 10 years and it’s 2nd consecutive month of contraction. Inflation is up. PCE, the Federal Reserves preferred measure of inflation, was reported flat and low at 1.4%. Yet, the CPI, which measures inflation from the consumer’s perspective, hit an 11 year high at 2.4%.  

Did you hear what is expected to trigger the recession? NOT housing! It’s the Global Trade War AND a Stock Market Correction. Where would you rather have your money? Know where mine is going!

What else is happening in our Denver market?  

The answer is, not much! Fall settled in as August to September numbers did what you’d expect… slower actives, new listings, under contracts, sold units and volume. Days on market went up by 1 day. But, year over year, we are holding our own. Active, new listings, under contract, sold units and volume, and median home prices are all up. Year to date our solds is up .66%, this is in line with NARs prediction that 2019 will land 1% over 2018. Remember, 2018 was a great year. So as we continue to ease into this new definition of normal, all I can say is, hop in... the water is fine.

If you want to protect your financial future given the current market or simply want to buy your first home; you need to give me a call, because this is what our team does best!

Nicole Rueth
The Rueth Team of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation


Why The Rueth Team?

The Rueth Team is dedicated to our clients success. It is this driving mission that keeps our team constantly learning and pushing beyond our boundaries. We find the solutions other lenders simply can’t (or won’t). We make a commitment to each borrower, fulfilling it with hard work, constant communication and creative problem solving. When a referral partner gives our name, they are confident knowing they are giving their clients the best chance of a smooth, successful experience.

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