The November DMAR Market Trends Report is out highlighting October’s data… and to be honest, there isn’t anything exciting or sexy in these numbers. In fact, they are pretty muted. However, if you know what’s going on under the housing market, there is actually a lot to talk about!
Let’s put the numbers in three buckets: Inventory, Affordability and Opportunity
The inventory crisis conversation is back.. but it’s not universal.
If you didn’t notices, we pivoted in July .. our seasons are both starting sooner and slowing sooner and sales are picking up as early as late January and getting exhausted by July. July started the 4 month trend of negative month over month inventory. Some of this is seasonal of course. October however, took a big decline in inventory with a 7.85% month over month decrease.
New listings were down as well; but demand continues to remain strong, with sales up year to date 4.42% and under contracts up in October 1.31%. Purchase apps were up at the end of October 2.3% year over year.
A decrease in New listings paired with a continued strong demand is going to put a strain on inventory. Especially under the median sales price. Remember, real estate is local, so this the median for each neighborhood and/or zip code.
Months of Inventory (MOI) below the median sold price of $423,200 hovers around 1 month; whereas over the median and the higher you go the higher it gets.. with MOI above $1 million over 6 months, making it a balanced market.
This strain on inventory will affect our appreciation levels, especially at the lower price points…pulling them up from the sleepy first half of the year. Year over year gain was 5.8% but year to date is 2.44% showing our slow start.
Before I leave Inventory, here is an alarming statistic I don’t want you to miss… 40% of all homes dropped their list price before going under contract. Those properties that reduced their price spent an average of 59 days on market compared to 14 days for those with no price reductions. Sellers, agents, it has never been more important to price a home right and stage it right!
With the lower appreciation levels we’ve seen year to date (especially when compared to the last five years) we’ve had a great improvement in affordability. Remember DMAR’s 11 county area saw a 5.8% year over year appreciation. National appreciation has been sitting close to it’s current 3.6% for the last 6 months, which is also the historical national appreciation average.
Low Unemployment provides for higher consumer confidence and spending. It continues to hover near it’s 50 year low at 3.6% up from 3.5%.
Increased wage growth, especially at the lower wage levels, also supports entry level home purchases. Hourly wages are up 3% year over year; weekly wages are staying strong at 2.7%; Colorado is seeing a healthy 3.1% year over year growth.
Lastly, interest rates have been a blessing to affordability as they continue to remain low. Having up ticked at the end of October to where they were in August, we are holding steady at 3.78% with a half point discount.
The expansion is nearing it’s end as we slow down to “new” normals. Buyers and sellers are uncertain and exhausted and everyone wants to talk about the recession and inventory issues. This is where we have to be alert, because the opportunities are about to explode!
First time Home Buyers (FTHB) are making a bigger splash. They represented 33% of sales last month. As Generation Z starts to age into credit qualification (18 yrs old); FTHB will be at historical highs with an expected 8.3M to 9.2M buying homes between 2020 and 2022. This is a significant jump from the previous three year periods.
What’s also exciting is that when surveyed 44% of FTHBs want to buy soon to start building equity and wealth. They get it.
So do the investors. 2018 was a 20 year high for investor purchases and 2nd quarter 2019 was as strong at 2nd quarter 2013. These are not industrial investors either… they are the mom and pop 1-10 property investor looking to build financial stability and security.
There might be uncertainty in the market; but I’m 100% certain… this real estate market is a strong one and will continue to be strong throughout the upcoming economic recession.
If you want to protect your financial future given the current market or simply want to buy your first home; you need to give me a call.. because this is what our team does best!
The Rueth Team of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
The Rueth Team is dedicated to our clients success. It is this driving mission that keeps our team constantly learning and pushing beyond our boundaries. We find the solutions other lenders simply can’t (or won’t). We make a commitment to each borrower, fulfilling it with hard work, constant communication and creative problem solving. When a referral partner gives our name, they are confident knowing they are giving their clients the best chance of a smooth, successful experience.Learn More
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