Monthly Mortgage Market Trends

July 2019

July Mortgage Trends Insight


Producing Branch Manager

Slow and Steady Wins the Race

The July DMAR Market Trends Report was just published. Denver's numbers are solid again; but I need to start globally to give perspective on what's affecting our local housing market.

2nd Quarter GDP has not come out yet; but is expected to be lower than Q1 which was probably inflated due to inventory hording in front of trade disputes. Central Banks across the globe are lowering their funds rates. Jobless claims ticked up ever so slightly making it the highest in 7 weeks and ADP and BLM (Bureau of Labor Statistics) are showing weak job creation. Inflation is staying flat at 1.5% for the headline PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and 1.6% for the core rate. The 10 year and 2 year have yet to invert but the 10, 1, 2, and 5 are so close they almost come in at a tie.  Making short term and long term money almost equally rewarded.

So?  Why do you care?

Remember last July when we saw 2018 turn on a dime? We thought the recession was here and we were going down hard. But instead what happened is we slowed down, way down. If you’ve seen me drive or have heard my story.. it’s as if I spotted police up ahead and begrudgingly moving over from the fast lane to the slow lane. Not happy about it, but the right thing to do.  

So we’re half way through 2019 now, how far have we come?

The DMAR 11 county area is doing well!  In fact, we’re doing better than that... we are slow and steady. Inventory hit a new high since October 2013 at 9520 active listings. Under contracts are up 3.69% from last month, 11.11% from last year. Demand continues to be strong with mortgage purchase applications up 9.2% year over year. Months of inventory are still under 3 months under $750k for attached and $1M for single family. Days on Market is up 66% for the median and 25% for the average. The Median home price for June is up 1.9 % from last year 

Appreciation defined

Let’s talk about median home prices for second. In the DMAR Market Trends Report, we use the median home price as our best indicator of the direction and speed our local appreciation is going. But median home prices are defined as a measure of an equal number of home sold above that price and below that price. There are gold standard data aggregators that track billions of records spanning more than 50 years to show the change of value of specific homes sold and refinanced over time. CoreLogic is one of them and they just came out with their May Price Insights today showing a strong national year over year appreciation of 3.6% and Denver’s year over year appreciation of 4%.

So do I buy, sell or wait?

Case Shiller goes on to forecast a year over year appreciation of 5.6% in May 2020. We are also expecting the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Rate by .25% maybe .5% at their next meeting July 30th. Talk about an incredible opportunity for both buyers and sellers!  Buyers, we have the lowest rates since November 2016. We have slowed appreciation as we pull out of a long running strong sellers’ market and ease our way towards a balanced market. Plus, we expect home prices and therefore the value of our investments to rise. Sellers, not a bad deal for you either. You are able to walk away with more than 5 years of incredible appreciation and value gain. You will be able to replace your current home at today’s low interest rates and continue to see growth, although slow and steady as we head into 2020.

Remember, only twice did home prices come down during a recession and they all saw interest rate reductions. With a strong housing market today demonstrated by record national housing equity and tight lending guidelines; I can only say… that whether it’s the roof over your head or a step towards financial security; there is nowhere I would rather be than in Denver’s real estate market!  Want to know what today’s market means to you? Give my team a call and let us design a path to homeownership for you!

Nicole Rueth
The Rueth Team of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation


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