Slow and Steady Wins the Race
The July DMAR Market Trends Report was just published. Denver's numbers are solid again; but I need to start globally to give perspective on what's affecting our local housing market.
2nd Quarter GDP has not come out yet; but is expected to be lower than Q1 which was probably inflated due to inventory hording in front of trade disputes. Central Banks across the globe are lowering their funds rates. Jobless claims ticked up ever so slightly making it the highest in 7 weeks and ADP and BLM (Bureau of Labor Statistics) are showing weak job creation. Inflation is staying flat at 1.5% for the headline PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and 1.6% for the core rate. The 10 year and 2 year have yet to invert but the 10, 1, 2, and 5 are so close they almost come in at a tie. Making short term and long term money almost equally rewarded.
So? Why do you care?
Remember last July when we saw 2018 turn on a dime? We thought the recession was here and we were going down hard. But instead what happened is we slowed down, way down. If you’ve seen me drive or have heard my story.. it’s as if I spotted police up ahead and begrudgingly moving over from the fast lane to the slow lane. Not happy about it, but the right thing to do.
So we’re half way through 2019 now, how far have we come?
The DMAR 11 county area is doing well! In fact, we’re doing better than that... we are slow and steady. Inventory hit a new high since October 2013 at 9520 active listings. Under contracts are up 3.69% from last month, 11.11% from last year. Demand continues to be strong with mortgage purchase applications up 9.2% year over year. Months of inventory are still under 3 months under $750k for attached and $1M for single family. Days on Market is up 66% for the median and 25% for the average. The Median home price for June is up 1.9 % from last year
Let’s talk about median home prices for second. In the DMAR Market Trends Report, we use the median home price as our best indicator of the direction and speed our local appreciation is going. But median home prices are defined as a measure of an equal number of home sold above that price and below that price. There are gold standard data aggregators that track billions of records spanning more than 50 years to show the change of value of specific homes sold and refinanced over time. CoreLogic is one of them and they just came out with their May Price Insights today showing a strong national year over year appreciation of 3.6% and Denver’s year over year appreciation of 4%.
So do I buy, sell or wait?
Case Shiller goes on to forecast a year over year appreciation of 5.6% in May 2020. We are also expecting the Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Rate by .25% maybe .5% at their next meeting July 30th. Talk about an incredible opportunity for both buyers and sellers! Buyers, we have the lowest rates since November 2016. We have slowed appreciation as we pull out of a long running strong sellers’ market and ease our way towards a balanced market. Plus, we expect home prices and therefore the value of our investments to rise. Sellers, not a bad deal for you either. You are able to walk away with more than 5 years of incredible appreciation and value gain. You will be able to replace your current home at today’s low interest rates and continue to see growth, although slow and steady as we head into 2020.
Remember, only twice did home prices come down during a recession and they all saw interest rate reductions. With a strong housing market today demonstrated by record national housing equity and tight lending guidelines; I can only say… that whether it’s the roof over your head or a step towards financial security; there is nowhere I would rather be than in Denver’s real estate market! Want to know what today’s market means to you? Give my team a call and let us design a path to homeownership for you!
The Rueth Team of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
The Rueth Team is dedicated to our clients success. It is this driving mission that keeps our team constantly learning and pushing beyond our boundaries. We find the solutions other lenders simply can’t (or won’t). We make a commitment to each borrower, fulfilling it with hard work, constant communication and creative problem solving. When a referral partner gives our name, they are confident knowing they are giving their clients the best chance of a smooth, successful experience.Learn More
NO OBLIGATION TRAINING: Market Mastery & “Done for You” Marketing tools delivered every 3rd Thursday (occasionally Tues) of the Month so you MAKE MORE MONEY! Nicole Rueth with Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation, together w/ guest speakers from a range of professional disciplines, will be presenting monthly updates on industry statistics and market news you can use to help educate and motivate your buyers and sellers. Walk away with talking points, slides & information to set yourself up as an industry expert.
Alison P. from Wheat Ridge, CO
Nicole was wonderful to work with! The experience was so much better and more personal than working with a large company where you might not have contact with the same person throughout the process. Nicole was extremely communicative, easy to reach and talk to, and went out of her way to make this the most positive experience for my family. She worked so hard to meet our tight deadlines and made the entire experience smooth and stress free. I would 100% recommend working with Nicole and the Rueth Team!
stacieandtomwedding from Denver, CO
Nicole and her team were responsive, professional, and supportive as they walked us through every step of the loan process. We highly recommend the Rueth Team and will reach out to them with any future needs!
Natalie W. from Idaho Springs, CO
We’ve used The Rueth team twice now and have had a seamless experience both times. She and her team are knowledgeable, friendly and helpful. When I contact them they are very quick to respond. I would continue to work with The Rueth team in the future!
Shelby from Denver, CO
I used Fairway and Rueth’s team when purchasing a home recently and they were outstanding throughout the entire process. One of the staff on the team was even out on leave for most of the process and you wouldn’t have even noticed. Everyone I worked with provided very friendly, personable and knowledgeable service. I knew what my options were and everything was done in a very timely fashion. They even were able to find me some closing clost assistance so that I was able to have some money in my pocket left at close to do some work on the house. This was the third home I’ve bought and Rueth’s team was by far the best mortgage company I’ve worked with and I would recommend them with my full confidence.
Andrew C. from Wheat Ridge, CO
Nicole was fantastic to work with. She's responsive, knowledgeable, and able to make last minute changes when necessary. Working with her was a nice change from big-box mortgage companies. When last minute things needed to be fixed she did them promptly, and made sure we made it to closing without a hitch!
Mr. and Mrs. Walls from Idaho Springs, CO
We were impressed with the professional, personable service we received from Nicole and would recommend her to other home buyers. She helped us get pre-qualified quickly, making our search more productive.
Kathleen Cain from Palmer Lake, CO
Excellent team! Would highly recommend! If I ever have to do this again I would call Nicole Rueth! Her response to any of my questions was answered immediately and with great accuracy! Couldn't have been any better!
Paige M from Morrison, CO
Nicole and her team did an amazing job not only in keeping me informed of all the processes that go into selling and buying a home, but they were professional and knowledgeable! They answered all my questions, and made it easy to understand! I will never use anyone else!
april3lynz from Colorado Springs, CO
Absolutely AMAZING group! I had a really rocky start with my home buying experience. I had a horrible realtor and I was going to go through a different lender. I dropped my horrible agent and found an amazing realtor who was just phenomenal, and she referred me to The Rueth Team. My experience with them was quick, painless and simply amazing. I had very little stress and their team was so helpful. I had a moment of panic and I called, they were able to explain everything to me without confusing me more and went over every detail of my process moving forward with me. They had no hidden fees and were straight up and up front with me the whole way. I'm extremely grateful to them. In less than a month I am moving into my new home!!
Jeff D. from Denver, CO
I've closed two mortgages prior to this one with The Rueth Team, and this was by far the smoothest lending process I've had. Nicole, Peter, Emily, and Robbin were terrific communicators, provided me with honest feedback, and were simply easy to work with. They're true professionals and I'd happily work with then again on my next loan.