Monthly Mortgage Market Trends

December 2019

December Mortgage Trends Insight
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NICOLE RUETH

Producing Branch Manager

“We have so much time and so little to see”

Who watched Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory this Thanksgiving? Oh come on.. it’s as traditional as A Christmas Story in December. Everyone wants the golden ticket!  Real estate, especially in the Denver market continues to provide that promise of gold. Continued strength in Colorado’s job growth, increased affordability at all levels with sustained low interest rates, and a healthy 3rd quarter GDP are economics that support all of us getting a golden ticket when we invest in the strength and stability of real estate.  

Let’s dive into what’s shifting in the economic market, the struggle with inventory, and where we might land 2019, 2020 and 2021

Economic Boredom 

I read a headline just this week… “Steady as She Goes”.  Honestly, I like it.  What’s wrong with a calm, stabilizing market? Initial jobless claims gave us a scare this month when they headed up for several weeks, tipping the scales towards increased unemployment and the recession. At the end of November they fell 15,000 nationally bringing good news and committing unemployment to its 50 year lows.  

GDP also took a small turn for the better as it surpassed predictions of 1.9 percent to land at 2.1 percent on its second look for Q3. The uptick was due to slightly stronger consumer spending (up 2.9 percent) as well as durable goods’ move to the upside. Manufacturing activity (inventory and new orders) entered its fourth month of contraction; but not enough to offset consumer spending’s 70 percent slice of GDP.

Interest rates continue to dazzle us by staying below 4 percent. After declining for 9 straight months, they have recently turned upward (only slightly) upon hearing the good news of the prolonged strength of the economy.

Inventory Woes to All

Inventory woes continue to affect us all. The National Association of REALTORS®’ Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noted residential sales continue to be strained by the lack of new inventory.  2019 marked the end of the inventory crisis.. so we thought. However, ever since February, the year over year trend line has been giving back the inventory we so desperately needed. After October squeaked by with only .21 percent more inventory than last year; November officially went negative again ending down 7.2 percent in active listings. Are our sellers getting scared out of listing even though it’s still a sellers’ market?

2020/2021 Here We Come

Remember real estate is a long game; so the part of this story I love the most is where we are landing 2019 as we are 11 months into the year. The median home price is up 2.44 percent. Year to Date Solds are up as well..2.17 percent. Real Estate really is the Golden Goose!   

Freddie Mac just came out with their 2020/2021 predictions. They are expecting rates to stay around 3.8 percent for 2020 AND 2021 and total home sales (new plus existing) to stay strong, increasing from 6M in 2019 to 6.1M in 2020 to 6.2M in 2021. National home price appreciation is expected to stay low finishing 2019 at 3.2 percent, then 2.9 percent in 2020 and 2.1 percent in 2021.  

Simply put, we expect continued affordability, while providing growth in appreciation and opportunity.

So what will next year really bring?  Well, in the immortal words of Mr. Wonka, “The suspense is terrible.  I hope it’ll last.”

Your champion in Building Wealth through Real Estate,
Nicole Rueth
The Rueth Team of Fairway Mortgage

 

 

 

Why The Rueth Team?

The Rueth Team is dedicated to our clients success. It is this driving mission that keeps our team constantly learning and pushing beyond our boundaries. We find the solutions other lenders simply can’t (or won’t). We make a commitment to each borrower, fulfilling it with hard work, constant communication and creative problem solving. When a referral partner gives our name, they are confident knowing they are giving their clients the best chance of a smooth, successful experience.

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Contact Info

303-214-6393
nrueth@fairwaymc.com   750 W Hampden Ave Suite 500 Englewood, Colorado 80110, United States

 

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